Date: 2009-08-03 10:47 pm (UTC)
If you think there is something false implied by the question, then you should judge it to be false (depending on how sure you are that the assumption is false).

For the general intelligence question, I did think of that as I was writing it down... but that was intended to be part of the question... if someone doesn't believe in general intelligence or doesn't believe that it can be measured then they should pick something low on the scale.

For the other one, all I was trying to ask is whether you believe the Efficient Market Hypothesis is true. My understanding is that most academics think it is (although not all) whereas a huge number of people outside of academia are convinced it is false... and there are lots of studies showing one results or the other, depending on who is doing the study.

Rather than just ask "is EMH true?" I figured I would try to write it out more specifically. The main issue is, as you say, whether there are trends. I decided to add the bit about psychology to make it more clear why someone would think there were trends... I realized as I was writing this that I could have left it off and it would have been essentially the same, but for some reason I thought it was interesting to put it on there. Now I kind of wish I had phrased it both ways, because my suspicion would be that including the motivation for believing in trends would increase the average score chosen by people, whereas if they are maximally rational it should decrease the average score. At any rate, the thing you read as the "implied assumption" was actually intended to be the main question.
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Domino Valdano

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