belief poll #2

[spoonless]

This time I made sure that the lower end of the range is 0 rather than 1, to make it symmetric with the 10. I don't know why lj defaults to 1-10... I was lazy last time and just left it how they set it up.

I know different people mean different things by choosing different numbers, so to standardize try and do it this way: pick 10 if you are 95%-100% confident that the statement is true. Pick 0 if you are 0-5% confident (in other words, 95%-100% confident it's false). Pick 9 if you are 85%-95% confident it's true. Pick 5 if you are 45-55% confident it's true (in other words, you don't know). I'm going to take browascension's suggestion this time and say that if you're unfamiliar with the topic, just skip it rather than picking 5.

I tried to pick questions that I was a little more agnostic on this time... last time I had too many extreme responses, both from myself and from everyone, so hopefully this one will be more mixed.

[Poll #1438874]

Comments

[spoonless.livejournal.com]

Ok, well I assign a non-zero probability to anything, including that. But as long as the probability you assigned was less than 5% you were supposed to pick 0. Only if you were at least 95% sure were you supposed to pick 10. ?

[inferno0069.livejournal.com]

Ah. True. I think I don't really have a good idea what probability to assign, except that it's not 0, and I'd like to communicate that with my answer. When I filled it out, I guess I aimed high.