belief poll #2

[spoonless]

This time I made sure that the lower end of the range is 0 rather than 1, to make it symmetric with the 10. I don't know why lj defaults to 1-10... I was lazy last time and just left it how they set it up.

I know different people mean different things by choosing different numbers, so to standardize try and do it this way: pick 10 if you are 95%-100% confident that the statement is true. Pick 0 if you are 0-5% confident (in other words, 95%-100% confident it's false). Pick 9 if you are 85%-95% confident it's true. Pick 5 if you are 45-55% confident it's true (in other words, you don't know). I'm going to take browascension's suggestion this time and say that if you're unfamiliar with the topic, just skip it rather than picking 5.

I tried to pick questions that I was a little more agnostic on this time... last time I had too many extreme responses, both from myself and from everyone, so hopefully this one will be more mixed.

[Poll #1438874]

Comments

[easwaran.livejournal.com]

There's a bit of a distinction between a false presupposition and a false entailment or implication - if you had asked "have you stopped beating your wife?" I'm not sure where on the scale from 0 to 10 I would best answer. But yes, I think I answered both of those with fairly low numbers as a result of the presupposition I think is false. I tend to believe the EMH, at least in some weak forms. (I don't know if you read Crooked Timber, but John Quiggin there has recently had some good posts discussing stronger and weaker forms of it.)

Especially since it gives me sufficient reason not to bother with trying to play the market.